Heatwaves and Droughts

A key focus of the DAKI-FWS project is the AI-based detection and forecasting of extreme events like heatwaves and droughts. This task leverages over thirty years of observational climate data, seasonal forecasts, and detailed geographical information. Core work includes:

• Calculating heatwave characteristics across Europe, including duration and intensity, based on dynamic threshold models.
• Developing regional heatwave intensity metrics across 36 European zones.
• Compiling datasets with NOAA sea surface temperatures and ERA5 atmospheric data to enhance heatwave detection capabilities.

Additionally, the project has developed an AI-driven tool for analyzing concurrent extreme events globally and within Germany, considering climate-driven frequency changes. This tool uses advanced statistical models, trained with extensive Monte Carlo simulations, to interpret complex dependencies among heatwaves, droughts, storms, and floods. The AI models, which include Support Vector Machines, Random Forest, and Deep Learning algorithms, enhance predictive accuracy and help assess impacts on German sectors more effectively.